The Nomura India Business Recovery Index (NIBRI) for the week ending August 8 hit a record 99.4 amid a drop in Covid-19 cases, suggesting a faster-than-expected recovery after the second wave of recession, the Japanese financial holding company said on Monday. , citing an increase in energy consumption and improved mobility.

“Nomura’s India Business Recovery Index reached a record high of 99.4 for the week ended August 8, down from 94.0 last week, near the pre-pandemic level (100) and exceeding the peak before the second wave (99.3 at mid-year). Feb). This suggests that the faster-than-expected recovery from the second wave crisis continued in early August, ”Nomura said in his weekly report, adding that the index had regained“ its momentum after fatigue over the past two years. weeks ”.

Mobility rose sharply after briefly plateauing, the report said, with the Google Workplace, Retail & Leisure and Apple Driving Index up 7.4 percentage points (pp ), 5.3 pp and 6.7 pp, respectively.

Electricity demand also rose 5.3% week-on-week after contracting for three consecutive weeks, while the activity rate rose to 41.5% from 39.8% previously, pushing the unemployment rate to 8.1%, he said.

While Covid-19 cases remain stable at around 40,000 per day, and at nearly 5 million doses per day, the vaccination rate is above the daily rate of 3.9 million in June, Nomura highlighted discrepancies at the state level on the rate of seroprevalence, cases of infection, vaccinations and the situation of confinement.

“Some states are doubling restrictions (like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu), while others like Maharashtra are relaxing more,” he said.

Overall, the latest rise in NIBRI corrects its plateau since mid-July and suggests that the faster-than-expected recovery after the second wave plummeted continued into early August.

“Whether increased mobility in turn triggers a third wave is a key risk that we continue to monitor,” Nomura said.

India has reported 35,499 cases in the past 24 hours.


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