Economic optimism rebounds, according to latest IBD / TIPP poll

LOS ANGELES–(COMMERCIAL THREAD) – The IBD / TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a leading national survey of consumer confidence, rebounded in June after declining in May. Last month’s index was down 3.5%, while this month the index is up 3.7%. June’s reading of 56.4 keeps the index in positive territory for the sixth consecutive month and ties April’s reading to its highest score since February 2020 (59.8), ahead of the pandemic crisis. For IBD / TIPP indices, a reading above 50.0 indicates optimism and below 50.0 indicates pessimism.

The IBD / TIPP Economic Optimism Index has established a strong track record by foreshadowing confidence indicators released later each month by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board.

For the June index, IBD / TIPP surveyed 1,305 adults from May 26 to 28. The survey was conducted online using TechnoMetrica’s online panel network to provide the sample. IBD / TIPP also surveyed respondents on key policy issues for the Presidential Leadership Index and the Separate National Outlook Index, as well as the Financial Stress Index.

This month, the Presidential Leadership Index rebounded after two months of decline. It rose 3.9% to 61.2 in June. In addition, each component of the index remained in positive territory for the fifth consecutive month. The Leadership component rose the most to 6.0% (58.3) while Favorability climbed 4.0% to 62.7, its highest value since President Biden’s first month in office.

Notably, the National Outlook Index hit its highest level since January 2004, with a reading of 55.2 in June. Ticking up 4.3%, the index completely wiped out May’s 3.8% decline. All six components of the index registered increases this month. The world rankings in particular climbed 7.1% (54.4), reversing the 6.8% drop from last month.

The related financial stress index was the only index to continue to show a negative trend. The index rose 2.3%, from 57.7 to 59.0. A reading above 50.0 equates to more financial stress, while a reading below 50.0 on this index would indicate that consumers are feeling less stress. This index was below 50.0 in February 2020 (48.1).

“The June indices reflect a lot of positivity as states reopen,” said Ed Carson, editor-in-chief of IBD. “Our data shows that nearly half of Americans are vaccinated, and an additional 17% have received their first vaccine. This creates more opportunities for work and travel as more money is pumped into the economy. ”

The flagship IBD / TIPP index of economic optimism has three key elements. This month, all three have increased.

• The six-month economic outlook, a measure of consumer opinion on the outlook for the economy over the next six months, rose 4.5%, from 53.2 in May to 55.6 in June.
• Personal financial perspectives, a measure of how Americans think about their own finances over the next six months, rose 0.5%, from 57.0 last month to 57.3 this month.
• Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, an IBD / TIPP proprietary measure of opinions on how government economic policies work, rose the most, climbing 6.2%, from 53.1 in May to 56.4 in June. This is the highest reading for this component since the start of the pandemic.

“The June indices show a lot of good news, but Americans remain a bit wary in terms of personal circumstances, with 54% of respondents falling into the ‘job-sensitive’ category,” said Raghavan Mayur, chairman of TechnoMetrica, who conducted the survey. . “Yet despite inflationary concerns, 44% of people believe the economy is improving and the six-month economic outlook is approaching pre-pandemic levels. The job market also looks promising, with more and more companies returning and / or opening at full capacity. As such, Americans can hopefully begin to feel more stability after an extremely turbulent year. ”

Breakdown of the economic optimism index

This month, 18 of 21 demographic groups – such as age, income, race, and party preferences – that IBD / TIPP tracks were above 50.0, in positive territory, out of the index of economic optimism. This is against 17 in May and April, 16 in March, 11 in February, eight in January and nine in December. Fifteen groups rose this month from seven in May, 14 in April, 19 in March, 13 in February, 12 in January and nine in December.

For the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, 17 of the 21 groups monitored by IBD / TIPP scored in optimistic territory compared to 13 in May, 15 in April, 12 in March, nine in February and seven in January and December. Optimism over the six-month economic outlook increased among 15 groups from nine in May, 15 in April, 18 in March, 15 in February, 14 in January and 10 in December.

For the personal finance component, 18 IBD / TIPP groups were in optimistic territory compared to 13 in May, 19 in April, 17 in March and February, 19 in January and December and 18 in November. Ten groups rose from nine in May and April, 15 in March, 10 in February, 12 in January and 13 in December.

For the Federal Policy stream, 17 of the 21 demographic groups tracked were over 50.0, compared to 13 in May, 16 in April, 14 in March, nine in February, seven in January and five in December. Eighteen groups rose from four in May, 12 in April, 20 in March, 16 in February and 13 in January.

ABOUT IBD^©/ TIPP SURVEY

The IBD / TIPP Economic Optimism Index is the first assessment of consumer confidence each month and reliably predicts monthly sentiment changes in well-known Conference Board and University of Michigan polls. The IBD / TIPP Economic Optimism Index is based on a survey of approximately 1,300 adults using a network of online panels. The national ballot usually takes place the first week of the month.

For more information, visit www.tipponline.com. To obtain a license for the IBD / TIPP survey, please contact IBDlicensing@investors.com.

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