Hong Kong’s economic system – battered by world commerce disruption by COVID-19 and months of political upheaval in 2019 – has rebounded extra vigorously than anticipated within the first three months of this 12 months, ending six consecutive quarters of unprecedented contraction.
Gross home product rose 7.8% within the three months ended March 31, the largest quarterly year-over-year achieve in 11 years and reversing the document 9.1% drop within the corresponding interval of final 12 months, in line with superior estimates launched by the federal government on Monday. .
The rebound marks a V-shaped restoration after a 2.8% drop in GDP within the fourth quarter of 2020. The median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg Information was for annual progress of three.7%.
“The sturdy rebound within the first quarter primarily mirrored very sturdy progress in items exports amid a world financial restoration led by mainland China and america,” the federal government mentioned.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-over-quarter foundation, town’s GDP jumped 5.3% in actual phrases from the final three months of 2020, up from a 0.5% enhance within the earlier quarter.
“The financial restoration, nevertheless, has been uneven and total financial exercise was nonetheless beneath pre-recession ranges, with the pandemic and social distancing necessities persevering with to weigh on sure financial segments, notably these involving actions in touch with the shoppers, ”the federal government mentioned. including that tourism “has remained within the doldrums”.
Tommy Wu, chief economist at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong, beforehand careworn that town would emerge from the recession, with exports driving progress. However the weak spot of the native job market may decelerate the restoration, he added.
It was untimely to talk of a full financial restoration given the challenges nonetheless posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, mentioned Iris Pang, ING Group’s chief China economist.
“I do not suppose you’ll be able to outline a development primarily based on only one financial knowledge, particularly given the excessive unemployment charge,” Pang mentioned.
Hong Kong’s seasonally adjusted unemployment charge from January to March was 6.8%, down from 7.2% between December and February, however nonetheless above the 6.6% within the final quarter of 2020 – itself a excessive in 16 years and away. from the long-term common of three.7% since 1981.
“The worldwide financial restoration led by the mainland and america ought to bode effectively for Hong Kong’s merchandise exports within the close to time period,” the federal government mentioned. Nonetheless, “danger components corresponding to Sino-US relations and geopolitical tensions additionally deserve particular consideration.”
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