Poll – Malaysia’s GDP decline expected to ease in first quarter due to increased exports

* Click on the voting data: reuters: // realtime / verb = Open / url = cpurl: //apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls? RIC = MYGDP% 3DECI

* Malaysia’s GDP fell 1.9% in the first quarter

* GDP fell 3.4% in the fourth quarter and 5.6% in 2020

* Coronavirus blockade poses downside risk to growth – Capital Economics

* First quarter GDP data due Tuesday, May 11 at 4:00 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time

Kuala Lumpur, May 7 (Reuters) – The Malaysian economy has been in the first quarter of 2021 for the past three months, supported by resilient manufacturing activities and growing external demand, according to economists polled by Reuters. Shouldn’t see a serious dip.

According to a median estimate from a Reuters poll of 11 economists, the economy is expected to shrink 1.9% between January and March, an improvement from the 3.4% decline recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. I am.

According to Alex Holmes, Asian economist at Capital Economics, the Malaysian economy was supported by strong manufacturing growth and sustained oil production, but the blockade imposed to contain the coronavirus outbreak in the quarter was on consumption. Will give it a shot.

“In recent weeks the outlook has deteriorated again and the reinstatement of the case has reimposed regulations,” Holmes said in a note.

“The risk to our annual growth forecast of 6.5% is now firmly weighted on the downside.”

March shipments jumped 31% year-over-year, as Malaysia’s export demand increased for the seventh consecutive month.

But this week, the government imposed mobility restrictions on most parts of the capital of Kuala Lumpur and surrounding Malaysia’s wealthiest region, Selangor, to deal with the new surge in COVID-19 cases.

The Malaysian central bank expects the economy to recover this year with growth of 6% to 7.5%. GDP fell 5.6% in 2020. This is the worst annual performance since the Asian financial crisis.

But the “sadly slow” pace of the government’s rollout of the coronavirus vaccine is likely to weigh on growth, said Brian Tan, an economist at Barclays.

The government has set for December the vaccination target of 80% of Malaysia’s 32 million people. As of Wednesday, nearly 992,000 people had been vaccinated at least once.

“At the current rate, we expect it will take another four years to deliver at least one dose to 80% of the population,” said Tan, who expects the Malaysian economy to grow 5.5%. % this year. I am.