Shares hold steady ahead of key US jobs report

Recap: Global stocks were mixed on Friday as investors waited for a key US jobs report that could influence the Federal Reserve’s timeline to cut its stimulus measures. European markets retreated slightly but still held onto their gains, as investors welcomed the lifting of the US debt ceiling.

The SET index traded in a range of 1,610.96 and 1,644.16 points this week before closing yesterday at 1,639.41, up 2.13% from the previous week, for a figure of average daily business of 91.84 billion baht.

Brokerage firms were net buyers of baht 2.69 billion, foreign investors bought baht 1.92 billion, and institutional investors bought baht 1.17 billion worth of shares. Retail investors were net sellers of 5.78 billion baht of shares.

Current actors: The US Senate on Thursday approved an increase in the short-term debt ceiling, ending a weeks-long political chicken game that had pissed off financial markets. The country was supposed to reach its borrowing limit on October 13, and it now has a hiatus until December 3.

• President Joe Biden on Tuesday issued a stern warning against U.S. decline in a speech urging Congress to vote on its ambitious infrastructure and social spending programs or lose to China.
• A six-hour Facebook outage on Monday woke up small businesses around the world that rely heavily on the social media giant.
• Whistleblower Frances Haugen, a former Facebook employee, urged U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday to regulate the social media giant, after disclosing tons of internal research that detailed how Facebook knew its sites were potentially harmful to the mental health of young people .
• Google has put the brakes on a plan to add mobile banking to its Pay app, even as the market for online financial services for everyday investors heats up.
• China continues to grapple with widespread electricity shortages, damaging its economic recovery and risking disrupting global supply chains and increasing inflationary pressure around the world.
• Another Chinese homebuilder has struggled financially after defaulting on debt payments, adding to concerns about the country’s real estate sector as beleaguered giant China Evergrande is on the brink of collapse.
• Major Chinese developers saw their sales drop last month, putting more pressure on the government to limit the fallout from Evergrande. The combined sales of the country’s 100 largest real estate companies fell 36% year-on-year to 760 billion yuan ($ 118 billion) in September.
• The share price of manufacturers of vaccines and other coronavirus treatments fell on Monday in Asia after Merck & Co said its experimental pill halved the risk of hospitalization and death from Covid-19.
• Oil prices were heading for a seventh weekly rise, the longest since last December, as a global energy crisis rocked markets from Europe to Asia. In the United States, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the release of strategic stocks was being considered to counter soaring gasoline prices.
• Volvo Cars, the Swedish automaker belonging to the Chinese group Zhejiang Geely Holding, is preparing to launch a first public offering in Stockholm, as part of a deal which, according to people familiar with the matter, could value it at more than 25 billions of dollars.
• Britain will remove strict Covid-19 quarantine requirements for 47 destinations on Monday, including South Africa and Thailand.
• Singapore plans to expand its quarantine-free travel program to include fully vaccinated people from South Korea and the United States as the financial center moves cautiously to reopen its borders.
• Vietnam plans to reopen major tourist destinations in December to vaccinated visitors from low-risk countries, before a full recovery scheduled for June next year.
• The Ministry of Commerce revised its annual forecast for headline inflation to a range of 0.8% to 1.2% (with an average of 1%), from 0.7% to 1.7% (with an average 1.2%) earlier.
• The government welcomed S&P Global Ratings’ decision to maintain Thailand’s sovereign rating at BBB + with a stable outlook.
• Industry ministry prepares to help small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) upgrade their factory technology to robotic and automation systems under $ 2.5 billion soft loan program baht.
• The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) is preparing to help its startups and SME members raise funds in the capital market to support business development.
• The government has revised investment plans in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), as it aims to stimulate economic growth of 4.5% to 5% per year between 2022 and 2026.
• The government aims to generate at least 882 billion baht in domestic tourism revenue next year through measures to revive the struggling sector after a significant drop in foreign arrivals.
• The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) hopes to increase inbound visitors to Asian markets during peak season through travel bubble programs offered with South Korea and India.
• The government is preparing to promote Phuket as a world-class destination, hoping to attract one million foreign visitors over the next six months and generate at least 60 billion baht in revenue.
• Tourism operators have complained about a planned levy of 500 baht per capita – 300 baht payable by foreign tourists and 200 baht by the state – for a “tourism transformation fund”. The plan is not appropriate at a time when the industry urgently needs a recovery, they say.
• Thai consumer confidence rebounded for the first time in seven months in September, but business sentiment fell further amid low purchasing power of consumers, which was hit by the protracted Covid epidemic.
• The headline consumer price index (CPI) rose more than expected in September, to 1.6% year-on-year, as government subsidies to utilities ended and energy prices rose .
• The government will cap diesel prices at 30 baht per liter until the end of the month to help lower the cost of living for consumers as global oil prices rise, Energy Minister Supattanapong Punmeechaow said .
• The Covid epidemic has caused fuel consumption in Thailand to drop 4.4% in the first eight months of 2021.
• The Thai National Shippers Council feels more optimistic about export prospects this year after shipments increased for the sixth consecutive month in August. He is now forecasting an annualized gain of 12%, the top of the previous forecast range of 10-12%.
• The new excise tax structure on cigarettes is expected to increase the retail price of low-priced products by at least 6 baht per pack, said the head of the excise department, Lavaron Sangsnit.
• A subsidiary of PTT Plc will join Tokyo Gas Engineering Solutions Corp in a joint venture to enter the on-site energy business involving the supply of liquefied natural gas in Thailand.
• PTT Oil and Retail Business Plc (OR) plans to invest in startups in Southeast Asia, to fuel its new activities, particularly in the field of mobility and lifestyles, as part of a fund of venture capital that she recently co-created.

Future : The United States will release employment trends in September on Monday and Britain will release August employment income and unemployment data on Tuesday. On the same day, the Eurozone and Germany will publish August Economic Sentiment Indices and the United States will publish August job vacancies.

• China will release September trade figures on Wednesday, Opec will release its monthly oil market report, and the United States will release September’s basic consumer prices.
• Australia will release September employment data on Thursday and China will release September consumer and producer prices. The eurozone will release August trade figures on Friday and the United States will release September retail sales, as well as the export and import price index.

Actions to watch out for: SCB Securities recommends the selective purchase of large cap stocks with good fundamentals, such as BBL, BDMS, HANA, OSP and TU. Also recommended are stocks that are expected to benefit from reopening, including AOT, CRC, BEM, ZEN, ERW and MINT. The broker also suggested speculative trading of laggards such as OR, OSP, TQM and MAJOR.

• Yuanta Securities says retail stocks will benefit from the easing of foreclosure measures, including BJC, CPALL, CPN and CRC. Demand for home improvement materials after recent flooding will benefit GLOBAL and DOHOME.

Technical view: Maybank Kim Eng sees support at 1620 points and resistance at 1670. Kasikorn Securities sees support at 1615 and resistance at 1680.