NEW YORK, June 7, 2021 / PRNewswire / – The Conference Board ™ Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose significantly in May, following an increase in April. The index now stands at 107.35, compared to 104.31 (a downward revision) the previous month. The index is currently up 39.4% from a year ago.
“Over the past three months, the Employment Trends Index has risen much faster than any other three-month period in the index’s history before the pandemic. This marked acceleration suggests historically strong growth of employment in the coming months, “said Gad Levanon, director of the Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “Data from the previous index had signaled growing labor shortages, but the most recent data strongly reinforces this trend. Indeed, forty-eight percent of companies reported an inability to fill positions in the industry. May NFIB survey, all-time high Job shortages are likely to be more acute in states that opened first, less in those that still have restrictions. sharp increase in wages. The average hourly wage over the past two months has increased by 7.4% (annual rate), which is two to three times the typical growth rate in recent decades. If the current rate wage growth continues for several months, this could have a significant impact on inflation and monetary policy. Towards the end of 2021, labor shortages are expected to ease, as some of the constraints related to moderate labor supply. “
The increase in May is due to the positive contributions of the eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, the components were: initial unemployment insurance claims; Percentage of respondents who say they find “hard to get jobs”; Industrial production; Percentage of businesses whose positions cannot currently be filled; Jobs ; Actual manufacturing and trade sales; Number of temporary employees; and the ratio of involuntary part-time workers to all part-time workers.
The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. The index’s turning points indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. The Employment Trends Index is composed of eight leading employment indicators, each of which has been proven to be correct in its own domain. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight main employment indicators aggregated in the Employment Trends Index include:
- Percentage of respondents who say they find “hard-to-get jobs” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
- Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims (US Department of Labor)
- Percentage of companies whose positions cannot be filled at the moment (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
- Number of employees hired by the temporary help industry (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Ratio of involuntary part-time to all part-time workers (BLS)
- Job offers (BLS) **
- Industrial production (Federal Reserve Board) *
- Real manufacturing and trade sales (US Bureau of Economic Analysis) **
* Statistical imputation for the recent month
** Statistical imputation for the last two months
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index on a monthly basis. 10 a.m.ETon the Monday following the publication of the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report each Friday. The technical notes in this series are available on the Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
About the Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that provides reliable information about the future. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity with 501 (c) (3) tax exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.
SOURCE The Conference Board